> http://www.antiwar.com/malic/m122503.html
December 25, 2003
Quo Vadis?
What’s in Store for 2004
by Nebojsa Malic
Another year has gone by, bringing no relief to
the embattled people of the former Yugoslavia.
Same as before, it has been a year of direct and
political violence, plunder and extortion, with
the ever-present Empire occasionally flexing its
muscles to remind the restive vassals it was still
the boss. Shards of the former South Slav federation continue
to struggle in the aftermath of succession wars,
international embargoes, societal meltdowns and
even global terrorism.
As 2003 drifts to a close, several simmering
Balkans issues remain unresolved. Croatia has just
seen a restoration to power of a party that ruled
it through the Succession Wars. Serbia will choose
a new parliament and government for the first time
since the October Coup overthrew Slobodan Milosevic.
Meanwhile, efforts continue to establish its occupied province
of Kosovo as an Albanian-dominated state. Bosnia
continues to slide back towards centralization,
one of the root causes of its bloody civil war.
Macedonia continues to walk the tightrope of
ethnic quotas imposed by the capitulation at Ohrid. What
lies ahead, in 2004?
Croatia’s "Sanader Restoration"
Three years after losing power, the resurgent
party of the late Franjo Tudjman is back
at the helm in Zagreb. Much has changed since 2000, though,
both within the HDZ party and in Croatia itself.
Gone are the heady days of 1995, when Tudjman was
America’s "junkyard dog" and Croatia could do no
wrong. Zagreb is just another vassal now, one
expected to bow and obey like the others.
The previous government waffled on giving
Washington immunity from the International
Criminal Court, and wasn’t able to rebuff the
shrill demands of the Hague Inquisition to extradite
the "Hero of the Homeland War," General Ante
Gotovina. Gotovina commanded the forces that expelled
most of Croatia’s Serbs in a 1995 military operation supported
by the US, and many of his backers complain
bitterly that he should not be penalized for doing Washington’s
bidding. Furthermore, the Empire is now playing
dumb and chiding Croatia for violating
the "human rights" of expelled Serbs, as if
unaware of its own role in the entire affair.
It is to be expected that the Empire will pressure
the new government on all these issues, if nothing
just to establish who is calling the shots. As a
reminder, the official media recently demonstrated
to Zagreb the kind of bad press usually reserved
for the Serbs. Schoolyard bullying passing as
international relations – that is the sad fact of
life in the 21st century.
But to be fair, Croatia has some vocal apologists
in Washington, and does not have to struggle with
anywhere as much as its neighbor to the east.
Serbia’s Choices
The most populous of Yugoslavia’s successor
states, Serbia is also the most unstable. After
the 2000 coup that ousted Slobodan Milosevic from
power, it fell into the grip of an autocratic
Prime Minister who proceeded to destroy all institutions
of government for the sake of personal power – but always
claiming he was doing it for the greater good. Zoran
Djindjic was so successful in his quest for power
that when he was cut down by
a sniper bullet, Serbia had no president, a rump parliament,
and a union with Montenegro so loose it
may as well have been nonexistent. His followers
quickly declared martial law, proceeded to arrest
thousands and crack down on "thought crimes" such
as journalistic inquiry. But the outrage over
Djindjic’s murder did not translate into long-term
support, and by early fall, the DOS regime was falling
apart. After another failed presidential vote,
it could no longer survive.
Polls in Serbia are notoriously inaccurate, so it
is not at all clear who might triumph in the
parliamentary election three days from now. The
Empire dreads and loathes the
potential success of the Radicals, as do its friends
and servants in Belgrade. Milosevic’s Socialists, allegedly
finished, may win as many mandates as the late Djindjic’s
Democratic Party. Combinations
that include a coalition of the Democrats, Vojislav Kostunica’s
Serbian Democrats, and the neo-Keynesians of G-17 are
mostly wishful thinking. There has even been talk
of restoring the monarchy, unfortunately tainted
by misguided political motivations.
It may be tempting to support certain people,
parties and policies just because the Empire
opposes them. That, unfortunately, does not mean
their ideas and convictions are any good – just
not good enough for Washington and Brussels. Whoever wins,
a government will be elected; and it will have such power
and influence over every aspect of life, yet be
completely at the mercy of the Empire, that
nothing good can come of it. But electing someone
who does not dance to an outside tune could be a
step in the right direction.
Whither Kosovo?
Begun in June 1999, the occupation of Kosovo on
behalf of the Albanian separatists continues, as
does the violence against the surviving
non-Albanians:
"It was on behalf of [the UCK] that the US
scrapped the NATO charter and violated
international law by committing naked aggression
against a sovereign state, and occupying one
portion thereof. That occupation has gone on for
over four years now, and has resulted in over 200,000
ethnically cleansed non-Albanians, at least 112
destroyed churches and monuments of culture, and
constant terror against the remaining non-Albanian population.
This happened because of, not in spite of, some 60,000 NATO
troops who occupied Kosovo. That's half the troops
occupying a much-bigger Iraq. The UCK-led violence
was not only not prevented, but legitimized by
holding elections for a "president," and
"parliament" of Kosovo. The UCK itself was
re-organized into the "Kosovo Protection Corps,"
paid by the UN/NATO to deal with ‘disaster
relief.’ But the only disaster in Kosovo was of
NATO's own making." (from The Lost Terror War)
Even as undercover British reporters uncovered a
terrorist weapons ring, Washington has pushed
forward a new initiative to achieve "standards"
for deciding the "final status" of Kosovo. The way
they were worded by the province’s UN administration,
Albanians have only to maintain a pretense of
tolerance with politically correct rhetoric, and
they are guaranteed independence in 2005. Protests
by local Serbs and Belgrade have met with the
usual dismissals.
There has never been any doubt that Albanians are
united over the issue of claiming Kosovo. If NATO
and the UN – dancing to the tune from Washington,
of course – actually support the Albanian cause,
there isn’t much that Serb protests can
accomplish. But there really ought to be a way to stop this
creeping amputation, an affront to civilized international
conduct if there ever was one.
Bosnia’s Slippery Slope
The passing of Alija
Izetbegovic in October had surprisingly little effect
on the Bosnian political scene, testifying to the staying
power of his ideology. The expected power struggle within
his SDA party appears to be taking place in private.
With the current viceroy firmly on their side, as
his eulogy for Izetbegovic demonstrated, there is
little danger of the SDA losing its grip on power.
Endorsements from former American potentates
didn’t seem to hurt, either.
Gradually demolishing the Dayton constitution,
Bosnia’s occupying viceroys – often with the help
of local authorities – continue to drag the
hapless country towards becoming a centralized
state. Each new violation is justified by a
perceived greater good. Establishing a standing
conscript army under central command is thus supposed
to help Bosnia join NATO some day, even though there is no
benefit in such a membership. Forcible integration of
intelligence and security agencies is supposed to
help fight crime and terrorism – but the biggest
criminals run the security apparatus, while
certain intelligence services help terrorists
daily. Now a special "war crimes court" has been
established, and already there are calls for a
centralized police force to enforce its rulings.
The slope towards centralism gets more slippery by
the day. Instead of a bigger state, or more of it,
people of Bosnia need just the opposite. But
robbed of possessions, hope and dignity, they
continue mistakenly placing their trust in politicians
and force.
Macedonia Mired
Some 2 million Macedonians enter 2004 still in the
shadow of Albanian territorial and political
claims. The 2001 Treaty of Ohrid has been
institutionalized, establishing ethnic quotas and
special treatment as a fact of daily life. The
recently completed census will in all likelihood
usher a new round of games over ethnic percentages
in government employment.
Albanian militants have lowered their profile, but
remain active. Foreign presence is still
substantial. Various NGOs are eating away at the
fraying fabric of society, and further upsetting
the already precarious economy. The Empire controls local
authorities to various degrees, ensuring their cooperation
and compliance. Much like its northern neighbor, Skopje
was not allowed to defend its territory and
constitution – indeed, it was forced to capitulate
– but was encouraged to send a unit to assist the
occupation of Iraq.
Efforts of Empire’s agents to disarm
the populace have been only partially successful, but the
real problem is not the presence of so many weapons, but
the readiness and desire to use them.
Balkans and the Empire
Throughout 2003, the Empire has remained a major
factor in Balkans politics, even as the
Mesopotamian mess commanded more of its attention
and resources. It continued to threaten and
demand, as well as use the precedents it created
from Yugoslavia’s carcass (albeit without a shred
of consistency, as could be expected). Another
"revolution" was engineered, in the Caucasus,
using the script developed in 2000 for Serbia.
Even as it schemed to detach Kosovo from Serbia,
it prepared to accept the Serbian quislings’ offer
of troops for Afghanistan.
Wishful thinking about changes in US policy after
9/11 does not seem to be borne out in reality.
While Bush II has been nowhere nearly as
aggressive in the Balkans as Clinton, the overall
policy has remained the same. Absolute obedience to every
whim is still demanded of Belgrade, and to some extent even
Zagreb, while the militants in Sarajevo and Pristina
get away with a slap on the wrist, if that.
Washington may be drawing down its troop presence
in Bosnia and Kosovo, but there is no sign it
intends to abandon its political influence in the
area.
Finally, the new grand
strategy for American foreign relations seeks to reshape
the world into a semblance of today’s Balkans, using intervention
methods pioneered in Bosnia and Kosovo.
No Triumph for Tyranny
Across the Balkans the same story is playing out:
abused by their own authorities as well as the
Empire, people turn to politicians and violence –
whether direct or institutional – to solve their
problems. Yet all that does is deepen the despair.
However clear the answer may seem from here, it is
far from obvious to them. Long have they been
pawns of the government, in servitude to the
state. Not just the words, but the very concepts
of freedom, honor and justice have lost their meaning.
Until it is rediscovered, there will be little but abstract
hope, and 2004 will look just like 2003 and the years
before.
It was just a century ago that people of the
Balkans fought ferociously for their freedom, so
much that one simple act of tyrannicide ended up
shattering the world of Imperial Europe. Have the
horrors of the 20th century killed that freedom-loving
streak in Europe’s southwestern corner? That is truly hard
to believe.
If people truly wish to stop being treated as
cattle, they should stop behaving as such. And
when by some chance that forlorn faith in freedom
is found again, no matter by how few, there will
be no victory for despair, no triumph for tyranny. And
the new year, this one or the one thereafter, will truly be
better.
Here’s to hope.
– Nebojsa Malic
December 25, 2003
Quo Vadis?
What’s in Store for 2004
by Nebojsa Malic
Another year has gone by, bringing no relief to
the embattled people of the former Yugoslavia.
Same as before, it has been a year of direct and
political violence, plunder and extortion, with
the ever-present Empire occasionally flexing its
muscles to remind the restive vassals it was still
the boss. Shards of the former South Slav federation continue
to struggle in the aftermath of succession wars,
international embargoes, societal meltdowns and
even global terrorism.
As 2003 drifts to a close, several simmering
Balkans issues remain unresolved. Croatia has just
seen a restoration to power of a party that ruled
it through the Succession Wars. Serbia will choose
a new parliament and government for the first time
since the October Coup overthrew Slobodan Milosevic.
Meanwhile, efforts continue to establish its occupied province
of Kosovo as an Albanian-dominated state. Bosnia
continues to slide back towards centralization,
one of the root causes of its bloody civil war.
Macedonia continues to walk the tightrope of
ethnic quotas imposed by the capitulation at Ohrid. What
lies ahead, in 2004?
Croatia’s "Sanader Restoration"
Three years after losing power, the resurgent
party of the late Franjo Tudjman is back
at the helm in Zagreb. Much has changed since 2000, though,
both within the HDZ party and in Croatia itself.
Gone are the heady days of 1995, when Tudjman was
America’s "junkyard dog" and Croatia could do no
wrong. Zagreb is just another vassal now, one
expected to bow and obey like the others.
The previous government waffled on giving
Washington immunity from the International
Criminal Court, and wasn’t able to rebuff the
shrill demands of the Hague Inquisition to extradite
the "Hero of the Homeland War," General Ante
Gotovina. Gotovina commanded the forces that expelled
most of Croatia’s Serbs in a 1995 military operation supported
by the US, and many of his backers complain
bitterly that he should not be penalized for doing Washington’s
bidding. Furthermore, the Empire is now playing
dumb and chiding Croatia for violating
the "human rights" of expelled Serbs, as if
unaware of its own role in the entire affair.
It is to be expected that the Empire will pressure
the new government on all these issues, if nothing
just to establish who is calling the shots. As a
reminder, the official media recently demonstrated
to Zagreb the kind of bad press usually reserved
for the Serbs. Schoolyard bullying passing as
international relations – that is the sad fact of
life in the 21st century.
But to be fair, Croatia has some vocal apologists
in Washington, and does not have to struggle with
anywhere as much as its neighbor to the east.
Serbia’s Choices
The most populous of Yugoslavia’s successor
states, Serbia is also the most unstable. After
the 2000 coup that ousted Slobodan Milosevic from
power, it fell into the grip of an autocratic
Prime Minister who proceeded to destroy all institutions
of government for the sake of personal power – but always
claiming he was doing it for the greater good. Zoran
Djindjic was so successful in his quest for power
that when he was cut down by
a sniper bullet, Serbia had no president, a rump parliament,
and a union with Montenegro so loose it
may as well have been nonexistent. His followers
quickly declared martial law, proceeded to arrest
thousands and crack down on "thought crimes" such
as journalistic inquiry. But the outrage over
Djindjic’s murder did not translate into long-term
support, and by early fall, the DOS regime was falling
apart. After another failed presidential vote,
it could no longer survive.
Polls in Serbia are notoriously inaccurate, so it
is not at all clear who might triumph in the
parliamentary election three days from now. The
Empire dreads and loathes the
potential success of the Radicals, as do its friends
and servants in Belgrade. Milosevic’s Socialists, allegedly
finished, may win as many mandates as the late Djindjic’s
Democratic Party. Combinations
that include a coalition of the Democrats, Vojislav Kostunica’s
Serbian Democrats, and the neo-Keynesians of G-17 are
mostly wishful thinking. There has even been talk
of restoring the monarchy, unfortunately tainted
by misguided political motivations.
It may be tempting to support certain people,
parties and policies just because the Empire
opposes them. That, unfortunately, does not mean
their ideas and convictions are any good – just
not good enough for Washington and Brussels. Whoever wins,
a government will be elected; and it will have such power
and influence over every aspect of life, yet be
completely at the mercy of the Empire, that
nothing good can come of it. But electing someone
who does not dance to an outside tune could be a
step in the right direction.
Whither Kosovo?
Begun in June 1999, the occupation of Kosovo on
behalf of the Albanian separatists continues, as
does the violence against the surviving
non-Albanians:
"It was on behalf of [the UCK] that the US
scrapped the NATO charter and violated
international law by committing naked aggression
against a sovereign state, and occupying one
portion thereof. That occupation has gone on for
over four years now, and has resulted in over 200,000
ethnically cleansed non-Albanians, at least 112
destroyed churches and monuments of culture, and
constant terror against the remaining non-Albanian population.
This happened because of, not in spite of, some 60,000 NATO
troops who occupied Kosovo. That's half the troops
occupying a much-bigger Iraq. The UCK-led violence
was not only not prevented, but legitimized by
holding elections for a "president," and
"parliament" of Kosovo. The UCK itself was
re-organized into the "Kosovo Protection Corps,"
paid by the UN/NATO to deal with ‘disaster
relief.’ But the only disaster in Kosovo was of
NATO's own making." (from The Lost Terror War)
Even as undercover British reporters uncovered a
terrorist weapons ring, Washington has pushed
forward a new initiative to achieve "standards"
for deciding the "final status" of Kosovo. The way
they were worded by the province’s UN administration,
Albanians have only to maintain a pretense of
tolerance with politically correct rhetoric, and
they are guaranteed independence in 2005. Protests
by local Serbs and Belgrade have met with the
usual dismissals.
There has never been any doubt that Albanians are
united over the issue of claiming Kosovo. If NATO
and the UN – dancing to the tune from Washington,
of course – actually support the Albanian cause,
there isn’t much that Serb protests can
accomplish. But there really ought to be a way to stop this
creeping amputation, an affront to civilized international
conduct if there ever was one.
Bosnia’s Slippery Slope
The passing of Alija
Izetbegovic in October had surprisingly little effect
on the Bosnian political scene, testifying to the staying
power of his ideology. The expected power struggle within
his SDA party appears to be taking place in private.
With the current viceroy firmly on their side, as
his eulogy for Izetbegovic demonstrated, there is
little danger of the SDA losing its grip on power.
Endorsements from former American potentates
didn’t seem to hurt, either.
Gradually demolishing the Dayton constitution,
Bosnia’s occupying viceroys – often with the help
of local authorities – continue to drag the
hapless country towards becoming a centralized
state. Each new violation is justified by a
perceived greater good. Establishing a standing
conscript army under central command is thus supposed
to help Bosnia join NATO some day, even though there is no
benefit in such a membership. Forcible integration of
intelligence and security agencies is supposed to
help fight crime and terrorism – but the biggest
criminals run the security apparatus, while
certain intelligence services help terrorists
daily. Now a special "war crimes court" has been
established, and already there are calls for a
centralized police force to enforce its rulings.
The slope towards centralism gets more slippery by
the day. Instead of a bigger state, or more of it,
people of Bosnia need just the opposite. But
robbed of possessions, hope and dignity, they
continue mistakenly placing their trust in politicians
and force.
Macedonia Mired
Some 2 million Macedonians enter 2004 still in the
shadow of Albanian territorial and political
claims. The 2001 Treaty of Ohrid has been
institutionalized, establishing ethnic quotas and
special treatment as a fact of daily life. The
recently completed census will in all likelihood
usher a new round of games over ethnic percentages
in government employment.
Albanian militants have lowered their profile, but
remain active. Foreign presence is still
substantial. Various NGOs are eating away at the
fraying fabric of society, and further upsetting
the already precarious economy. The Empire controls local
authorities to various degrees, ensuring their cooperation
and compliance. Much like its northern neighbor, Skopje
was not allowed to defend its territory and
constitution – indeed, it was forced to capitulate
– but was encouraged to send a unit to assist the
occupation of Iraq.
Efforts of Empire’s agents to disarm
the populace have been only partially successful, but the
real problem is not the presence of so many weapons, but
the readiness and desire to use them.
Balkans and the Empire
Throughout 2003, the Empire has remained a major
factor in Balkans politics, even as the
Mesopotamian mess commanded more of its attention
and resources. It continued to threaten and
demand, as well as use the precedents it created
from Yugoslavia’s carcass (albeit without a shred
of consistency, as could be expected). Another
"revolution" was engineered, in the Caucasus,
using the script developed in 2000 for Serbia.
Even as it schemed to detach Kosovo from Serbia,
it prepared to accept the Serbian quislings’ offer
of troops for Afghanistan.
Wishful thinking about changes in US policy after
9/11 does not seem to be borne out in reality.
While Bush II has been nowhere nearly as
aggressive in the Balkans as Clinton, the overall
policy has remained the same. Absolute obedience to every
whim is still demanded of Belgrade, and to some extent even
Zagreb, while the militants in Sarajevo and Pristina
get away with a slap on the wrist, if that.
Washington may be drawing down its troop presence
in Bosnia and Kosovo, but there is no sign it
intends to abandon its political influence in the
area.
Finally, the new grand
strategy for American foreign relations seeks to reshape
the world into a semblance of today’s Balkans, using intervention
methods pioneered in Bosnia and Kosovo.
No Triumph for Tyranny
Across the Balkans the same story is playing out:
abused by their own authorities as well as the
Empire, people turn to politicians and violence –
whether direct or institutional – to solve their
problems. Yet all that does is deepen the despair.
However clear the answer may seem from here, it is
far from obvious to them. Long have they been
pawns of the government, in servitude to the
state. Not just the words, but the very concepts
of freedom, honor and justice have lost their meaning.
Until it is rediscovered, there will be little but abstract
hope, and 2004 will look just like 2003 and the years
before.
It was just a century ago that people of the
Balkans fought ferociously for their freedom, so
much that one simple act of tyrannicide ended up
shattering the world of Imperial Europe. Have the
horrors of the 20th century killed that freedom-loving
streak in Europe’s southwestern corner? That is truly hard
to believe.
If people truly wish to stop being treated as
cattle, they should stop behaving as such. And
when by some chance that forlorn faith in freedom
is found again, no matter by how few, there will
be no victory for despair, no triumph for tyranny. And
the new year, this one or the one thereafter, will truly be
better.
Here’s to hope.
– Nebojsa Malic