Della miseria della opposizione di destra in Serbia
Quarta parte:
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===
Part 2 of Senate Hearings
Ambassador Gelbard, I wonder if Balkan ghosts are still alive even in
Serbia
that these opposition forces can actually unite to extricate Mr.
Milosevic,
what are the odds? I mean, you see it happening? There's a number of
parties
here:
Mr. Draskovic, Mr. Djindjic. I mean, can they put aside personal
ambition for
national good in this effort?
MR. GELBARD: Well, first, Mr. Chairman, one thing I've learned after a
number
of years working in the Balkans is that I don't give odds.
SEN. SMITH: (Laughs.)
MR. GELBARD: I like to be pleasantly surprised, if that should happen.
The biggest obstacle right now, as I said, has been the fractiousness of
some
elements of the opposition and the possibility that they may not have
learned
from the mistakes they committed in the past, where they allowed their
egos,
personal differences, and perhaps even some ideological differences to
get in
the way from achieving the ultimate goal that they all say they desire.
As
you know, Mr. Chairman, and as Senator Biden knows very well, the
Zajedno
group blew their opportunity during the winter of '96-'97, when they had
victory in their hands. And a principal reason for that was, indeed, the
personality differences between Draskovic and Djindjic. Over the last
year
and a half some elements of the opposition appear to have learned from
this.
Several coalition groups have developed in a very positive way,
including the
Alliance For Change, the Alliance For Democratic Political Parties, and
others. And their message appears to be a constructive one, a
forward-looking
one about the future that could be that of Serbia and the FRY.
Our message to the opposition has been that this time they need to learn
from
the mistakes of the past because they have such an extraordinary
opportunity
now, and they need to find a way, if they can't construct a single
opposition
front, then at least to develop a loose coalition that follows the same
line
to avoid undercutting each other. There have been a number of
non-aggression
pacts signed among opposition groups and parties, so far. That's a
positive
sign, and we think it's critical that they continue to move forward on
this
kind of code of conduct, as well as similar platforms in their
demonstrations
as they move forward.
SEN. G. SMITH: As you look into the future, you think of Montenegro and
what
they're doing, is Montenegro something of a model for how Kosovo could
develop?
And is Montenegro likely to go independent as well?
MR. GELBARD: Well first, we have, as I said in my written testimony,
continued to point to the government, the ruling party, the ruling
coalition
in Montenegro as the right kind of example for Serbia in the sense that
they
have developed a multi-ethnic democratic coalition, which, incidentally,
includes Serbs, Montenegrans, Albanians, Bosniacs, lots of others. In
that
sense, we would hope that the Serbian political parties and NGOs, labor
unions and the like, could learn from this.
And it's very interesting for me that Serb opposition leaders really
look up
to President Djukanovic, not just because he's 6'-5", but because he is
somebody who clearly has demonstrated a willingness and an ability to
construct a democratic coalition that functions and that pursues
free-market
economic policies. So we certainly hope that whether it's the people of
Serbia and their leadership, their political parties, or in Kosovo, that
this
can be a kind of example.
At the same time, our preference, of course strong preference, as I have
repeatedly told President Djukanovic, is for Montenegro to remain an
integral
part of the The --
SEN. G. SMITH: Is that likely, or what do you suspect is happening?
MR. GELBARD: Well, President Djukanovic is looking for a fairer deal
under
the constitution that exists.
The constitution itself isn't bad. It has been the way Milosevic has
twisted
it over the last seven or eight years. And Djukanovic is now looking for
more
autonomy under this constitution, as a way of keeping Montenegro inside
of
Yugoslavia, and we don't disagree with that.
We want to continue to see Montenegro as part of Yugoslavia. And we feel
that
a country made up of equal republics is a reasonable and decent way to
go.
SEN. G. SMITH: Ambassador Pardew, without a democratic change in
Belgrade --
I mean, is it realistic for Kosovo to be a truly autonomous province of
Serbia?
MR. PARDEW: On the long run, we have to have a democratic change in
Belgrade.
We are going to do everything that we possibly can to create the
institutions
of democracy in Kosovo with or without regard to what happens in
Belgrade.
But you're right; there are limits to how far you can go with the
current
regime in Belgrade. So I agree with you.
SEN. G. SMITH: Senator Biden?
SEN. BIDEN: Gentlemen, they are both good statements I believe -- and so
much
to ask. Let me start by picking up where the chairman left off.
Montenegro has basically issued an ultimatum to Serbia. And it says
that: "We
want greater autonomy. We want to be able to conduct relations with
other
countries without Belgrade's interference." And it set a deadline for
that to
occur. They are going to hold a referendum. That's been pushed back
until, as
I understand it, until September, the ultimatum.
I don't know where that goes. I mean, Milosevic, it seems to me, if he
accedes to that, demonstrates he has even less power than he's trying to
portray he has hold of, and if he doesn't, there's nothing he can do to
stop
what Montenegro's going to do. And I don't know how they stop that from
rolling down the -- that ball from rolling. Would you comment on that,
Ambassador Gelbard?
MR. GELBARD: First, under the constitution of the FRY, the federal
constitution, and under Montenegro's constitution, they do have certain
rights which go further than we would normally expect part of a
sovereign
state to have. For example, they do have legitimately their own foreign
minister and ability to conduct some foreign policy functions
constitutionally. They also have the right to have a referendum on
independence under their constitution.
My sense is that right now the vote would not go in favor of
independence.
But what's very clear, Senator, is that Milosevic has been the one who
has
pushed the Montenegrin people in this direction over the course of the
last
two years. As I mentioned in my testimony, Milosevic and his puppet, the
former president of Montenegro, Momir Bulatovic, tried to overthrow
Djukanovic before he was inaugurated as president on June 15th, 1998.
They
also increased the size of the army, the VJ, in Montenegro during the
conflict in Kosovo from 9,500, which is its usual size, up to 40,000 by
adding on reservists and some other regular army personnel. And it was a
very
delicate dance that took place there between the VJ and the police,
which
come under the Montenegrin government.
I think Milosevic knew that if the army tried to overthrow Djukanovic,
there
was likely to be civil war, the army was likely to fracture; and the
police
are quite strong. Nonetheless, the Montenegrin government is showing
prudence
in how it's trying to proceed. Djukanovic, by his own public statements,
has
said that he doesn't want independence; what he wants is equal
opportunity
inside of the FRY.
SEN. BIDEN: But he's threatened a referendum, hasn't he?
MR. GELBARD: He's threatened a referendum, which, as I said, is
legitimate
under their constitution.
SEN. BIDEN: Yeah.
MR. GELBARD: So I wouldn't want to give you a hypothetical answer about
where
this is going.
But Djukanovic is trying to keep his coalition to gether, he's trying to
cope
with the significantly increased percentage of the population who are
now
tremendously frustrated by Milosevic's boycotts and blockades against
the
Montenegrin people, and I think President Djukanovic deserves a great
deal of
credit for trying to walk a very delicate line right now, even as he's
trying
to stay inside Yugoslavia.
SEN. BIDEN: Great non-answer. (Laughter.) And I appreciate it very much.
It
seems to me, because I'm not a diplomat and most people don't care about
foreign policy and they forget what I have to say anyway --
MR. GELBARD: I never do, Senator.
SEN. BIDEN: It seems to me that Djukanovic has himself -- and I'm not
being
critical of him -- I mean, I think he's looking around and saying, "How
do I
cut my deal so that I get a major piece of this reconstruction that's
going
to go on in the Balkans here?" Not a whole lot that Serbia can do to
block
access now; boycotts are aren't going to matter a whole lot if, in fact,
they
attempt to.
And I just wonder how this is playing in Belgrade, whether or not they
fear a
referendum or Djukanovic fears a referendum more than Belgrade fears a
referendum, but you've -- you know, you've answered it as you probably
should.
We talk about -- Ambassador Pardew -- we talk about supporting the
media, a
free and open media. How? How do we do that? I thought you had said
that, or
maybe you said that --
MR. PARDEW: Yes. Yes.
SEN. BIDEN: Either one of you or both of you. Mechanically, how do we do
that?
MR. PARDEW: Well, we work through nongovernmental organizations. We have
established, as Ambassador Gelbard mentioned, a ring around Serbia,
which is
using international broadcasts, but we're offering that to independent
voices
in Serbia. We are using international facilities to make -- and making
them
available to independent groups.
SEN. BIDEN: Let me put it another way. We can make facilities available;
are
we prepared to shut down facilities that spew propaganda?
MR. GELBARD: Well, we have, senator.
SEN. BIDEN: We have. I mean --
MR. GELBARD: During the --
SEN. BIDEN: -- over the long haul? Is this the --
MR. GELBARD: Well, first, during the conflict in Kosovo we and our
allies --
SEN. BIDEN: No, I know that. I want to know from now.
MR. GELBARD: Well, the -- as far as I'm aware, Serb television has still
been
cut off the (EUTELSAT ?) facilities, and we've made sure that whenever
they
made an attempt -- and there was a brief moment when they got back on
another
satellite -- we shut them off those. What we're really trying to do, the
use
of the international facilities that Ambassador Pardew referred to,
particularly the RFE, RL, and the ring around Serbia, is a temporary
measure.
What we're trying to do over the long term is support an alternative
indigenous voice for the Serbian people through mechanisms such as ANEM,
the
Network of Independent Radio and Television. We have funds available
that we
were just about to deliver when the conflict broke out and Milosevic
switched
them off. But we have funds available that we are on the verge of
providing
to them again so that independent television and radio can be augmented
throughout Serbia. We're supporting Montenegran television and radio so
that
they can be another voice for the Serb opposition and the Serb people as
well
as, of course, for the Montenegran people. And we're looking at other
means
to really augment the capability or start up again the capability of
free
Serbian voices inside of Serbia.
MR. PARDEW: Can I add to that, senator?
SEN. BIDEN: Yes.
MR. PARDEW: We are -- the international community is promoting printing
of
newspapers that were previously printed in Kosovo now being printed in
Macedonia and distributed in Kosovo free of charge. You will hear from
John
Fox (sp) later, I think, from the Soros Foundation. They've been
instrumental
in putting funding in to independent radio in Kosovo. We encourage that.
The
former Serbian radio and TV in Pristina has been taken over by the
international community, and we've denied one access to one group to
dominate
that because we don't want a single voice, and we will ensure that there
are
multiple voices on this.
So there are a range of programs ongoing in Kosovo, as Bob mentioned.
SEN. BIDEN: What can we do about inside Serbia? For example, Draskovic
continues to deny access to Studio B, which is supposedly, as I
understand it
-- he's not?
MR. GELBARD: No, he's actually given access to Studio B -- excuse me;
given
access of Studio B to Radio B-92. And my understanding is that Radio
B-92,
one of the independent voices, has just reopened as Radio B-292. We want
Draskovic to open up Studio B to the rest of the opposition, and that's
a
message that he'll be getting from us in the next few days.
SEN. BIDEN: Last question, if I may, Mr. Chairman?
SEN. G. SMITH: Sure.
SEN. BIDEN: We all say, including me, that ultimately there is no
long-term
integration of the Balkans into an undivided Europe until Milosevic
goes. I
wonder whether we're saying that too much these days, including me. Let
me be
more precise.
As long as there is success in Sarajevo today -- I guess it's today or
tomorrow -- tomorrow, as long as the commitments are real, as long as
the
civilian police force is put in place, the media is not dominated, the
reconstruction of Kosovo and Macedonia and Montenegro and the
surrounding
areas really begins in earnest, with the European Community taking the
lead,
I don't know what Serbia can do, under Milosevic's leadership, that can
much
effect whether or not we succeed in that part. In other words,
admittedly, at
the end of the day, until the Serbian people have come to terms with
their
leadership and what was done, you can't have a solution here. But I
don't
know what Milosevic and an antagonistic Serbia can do, as a practical
matter,
to effect about 500 things we've got to do in the meantime anyway, to
begin
to put together, economically and politically, a larger plan for the
Balkans.
Am I missing something here?
MR. GELBARD: Senator, I believe that Milosevic has an infinite
capability for
creating damage. Even while he had so many problems at home, he tried to
overthrow the Dodik government, the moderate Bosnian Serb government in
Republika Srpska. We were able to stymie that, and the Dodik -- Dodik
and his
government emerged strong after the conflict --
SEN. BIDEN: Is that related to his ability if it -- when it was even a
possibility, to his ability to provide force to back up any effort that
would
be undertaken, ultimately? The ability to provide assistance?
MR. GELBARD: He still has the capability of providing force, not in
Bosnia,
but in Montenegro, and in his own perverse way --
SEN. BIDEN: How can he do that? Be specific --
MR. GELBARD: Through the army.
SEN. BIDEN: If in fact that occurs, I can't imagine that the
international
community and KFOR will not come down on that effort like a God- -- a
gosh-darn mountainside being blown up. I don't understand that. I mean,
do
you mean -- is there any doubt on the part of the alliance that if there
is
use of military force, of the VJ, in Montenegro, that we won't use all
force
available to us to take them out?
SEN. SMITH: Or are you telling us that we won't? I mean, I don't --
MR. GELBARD: I'm not certain that that is something which is in -- that
is
not necessarily in NATO's agreed NATO action at this point, or when the
current mandate terminates. If it isn't --
SEN. BIDEN: But --
MR. GELBARD: -- what I worry about is that Milosevic survives by
creating
trouble. He is in the worst trouble he's ever been. He's in a corner.
The
economy has collapsed totally. Real wages were at the same level as the
early
1950s before the conflict, and right now they have virtually no reserves
left. But this is why it is imperative to see a change in the regime, to
have
democratic government arrive in Belgrade as a way of having the region
whole.
That's why we --
SEN. BIDEN: I couldn't agree more, but let me --
MR. GELBARD: -- consider that to be an imperative in our foreign policy.
SEN. BIDEN: As you know, there has been no one that you have known in
Congress that has been more supportive of arriving at that conclusion,
but I
like to think I am a realist.
The idea that we are going to produce a democratic government in Serbia,
between now an d the end of the year, is about as likely as this podium
getting up and walking to the back of the room. And what I want to sort
of
disabuse everybody of here is a new State Department-arrived-at notion
that,
through State Department-speak, we are going to arrive at something
that's
not possible. The most likely thing to do is nail the son of a gun by
literally going in and getting him and dragging him to The Hague. If we
had a
brain in our collective heads, that's what we would do; literally, not
figuratively. But we are not going to do that because our European
friends
all lack the will, and we will lack the willingness to push that
forcefully.
And so I just hope that we make it clear that the idea that he may be
alive
and well in Serbia does not mean that we -- the isolation of Serbia and
him
in fact -- and him in particular does not allow us to pursue all our
other
objectives in the meantime. If they want to wither on the vine and die,
so be
it -- so be it -- which takes me to a question relating to aid.
We are saying -- we and the Europeans are saying that we will provide
humanitarian financial -- we are not planning financial assistance or
reconstruction aid but that we will provide humanitarian assistance. I
think
that is a very, very, very fine line to draw. And I think that we should
be
very aware that his ability to create mischief and gain credibility will
relate to how tightly we parse that.
How do we prevent Milosevic from claiming credit for Western assistance
to
Serbia, particularly when the media is still not a free media?
So I just -- I'm not even asking you to respond, because it's unfair. If
you'd like to, I'd welcome it. But I just think that this ain't over
till
it's over. It's not over till he's gone. But we cannot assume as long as
he's
[not?]gone we can hedge our assessment of what we're able to do outside
of
Serbia, in my humble opinion.
SEN. G. SMITH: I'd like to follow on to what Senator Biden is saying
here.
One of the reasons that I voted to support President Clinton and the
allies
in this action in Kosovo was my belief that if Milosevic could work this
kind
of mischief, we would be pinned down in Bosnia for a long, long, long
time,
and that by defanging his military, we could go home earlier. Is that a
naïve
belief on my part?
MR. GELBARD: Well, first, to answer Senator Biden's question --
SEN. G. SMITH: And by the way, I think he's going to commit mischief if
we're
saying that we're not willing to do anything.
MR. GELBARD: First to answer Senator Biden, though, Senator, I agree
with you.
That's why we are continuing to press ahead on all other initiatives and
we're working with the Europeans on the stability pact, which is a
regional
effort, a regional approach regarding democracy, security and economic
development. And that's what we feel it has to be, a regional focus on
every
place.
The line -- the fine line you ask about, I agree with you again. That's
why,
again, we're not trying to play games on the issue of assistance; we're
saying humanitarian assistance means food and medicine. We have looked
at
other types of possible assistance, but we feel, as I said in my
statement,
that it's imperative to maintain the isolation with the three layers of
sanctions -- the outer wall, Kosovo-related sanctions, and the wartime
sanctions.
And the -- President Clinton and the administration, entire
administration,
feel very strongly that we should be maintaining all these sanctions
until --
as a way of maintaining this type of isolation, because you're right, it
would be very easy to begin to blur the line. And I know, as you know,
Senator, there are countries out there that are interested in moving
over
different lines over time.
SEN. BIDEN: And I'm worried about us setting the bar so high that we
build in
failure here, because if a year from now there is not democracy in
Serbia,
after we keep talking this claptrap about, you know, democratic -- there
aren't any democratic forces in Serbia now. Draskovic ain't a Democrat.
This
guy is no box of chocolates. He's better than the other guy, but this is
no
box of chocolates. I think we should be honest about this.
And look, just to make it clear to you where I am, and just speaking as
one
senator, there's a big difference between clearing the bridge -- the
bridge
debris out of the Danube so our allies can use the Danube, and building
a new
bridge. I'll clear it. I will do everything in my power here to make
sure
there's not a cent that can be spent to build it.
And I just think that they've got to come to their -- the realization of
what
they have enabled Milosevic to do, and until there are democratic forces
there, I am -- like for example, the press asks me all the time, we
voted 100
-- what was it? -- $100 million in the Serbian -- I don't know who to
give it
to? Okay?
I mean, I know how -- I know what I'd like to give it to. But we
Americans
tend to think, whether it was Ronald Reagan in, you know, in Latin
America or
us in the Balkans, that there's some Jeffersonian democrat waiting to
spring
up somewhere to lead a -- you know, a democratic rival there. There
ain't no
Democrats in Serbia, that I've found. I mean -- democratic leadership,
that
has any realistic possibility of moving. So I guess what I'm trying to
say to
you is this. I just think it's a little bit like -- the secretary got
mad at
me when I a month ago said stop talking about Rambouillet, stop talking
about
how we want to bring them back to the table. We don't want to bring them
back, we want to beat the hell ou t of them until they stop. That's what
we
want. And that's the only thing that worked.
And I think this idea that we're really in effect saying we're not going
to
succeed until we have a democratic Serbia, then that is ultimate
success. But
I'm afraid you're going to have people up here saying, well, geez, it's
been
-- it's been four months, you know? -- don't have it yet, so I guess we
shouldn't be spending all this money doing this other stuff over here.
MR. GELBARD: Well, in fact, I said in my statement that in the short
term
it's hard to imagine that it will be able to achieve a democratic
solution in
Serbia. That's why we have to be prepared to support democratic forces
--
SEN. BIDEN: And there are democratic forces.
MR. GELBARD: Well --
SEN. BIDEN: Ain't much democratic leadership.
MR. GELBARD: Tomorrow a representative of the democratic opposition,
Draguslav Ovramovic (sp), will be in Sarajevo for the summit. This is a
man
who is a very high common denominator. He is part of the alliance for
change.
Vuk Draskovic is a really flawed individual. But --
SEN. BIDEN: He is the Rasputin of the 21st century, about to be. I mean,
we're not quite there yet.
MR. GELBARD: I'll tell him you said it. (Laughs.)
SEN. BIDEN: I told him that.
MR. GELBARD: Yeah.
SEN. BIDEN: So I -- I'd tell him. I --
MR. GELBARD: We still hope that he can be part of the solution here --
SEN.
BIDEN: I hope so, too, but he's going to take work.
MR. GELBARD: Mr. Chairman -- he's going to take a lot of work.
SEN. BIDEN: That's a very high maintenance fellow.
MR. GELBARD: I know. Believe me, I know. (Laughs.)
Mr. Chairman, regarding your question, the -- (stops) -- the Republika
Srpska
has emerged, coming out of the conflict, if anything with significantly
strengthened moderate leadership. The Dodik government is stronger than
they
were at the beginning of the year. They are stronger than they were
after the
elections in September.
When I last met with Prime Minister Dodik, about a month ago, he was
much
more comfortable, much more confident about his ability to govern. We
are
seeing that the extremes, who were weakened after the September national
elections, are becoming weaker still. High Representative Carlos
Westendorp,
whose last day is tomorrow, banished President Poplasen, the leader of
the
Radical Party, from his position, and it's now very clear that his
Radical
Party is weaker than ever, as is Karadzic's SDS. We see prospects for
the
moderates better than ever. And while there's still a ways to go, the
prospects look much better.
SEN. G. SMITH: Thank you.
MR. PARDEW: Could I just comment on the democracy issue? We don't have
any
illusions about who we're dealing with here, but I do think democracy is
an
aspiration of many of the Serb people. And in that regard, I don't think
we
ought to stop talking about it, Senator. I think we ought to -- we ought
to
continue to discuss it as an issue of --
SEN. BIDEN: I'm not suggesting we don't talk about it; I'm suggesting we
talk
about it realistically. I mean, for example, it's amazing what can
happen
when you eliminate the extremes. I mean, the single best thing that ever
happened to the Republic of Srpska is we kicked the living hell out of
Milosevic. There ain't no alternative left. That's the reason why it
happened. It had nothing to do with elections, it had to do with the
fact
that Westendorp had the right idea, number one; and number two, there
ain't
no alternative. Belgrade's no beacon, no help, no place to go. So there
is no
alternative. It's amazing what a salutary impact that has upon extremes
in
countries.
And that's why the single best thing we -- my dream is to visit
Milosevic in
prison. (Laughter.) I mean that sincerely. I'm not being facetious.
Because
you put Milosevic in prison, and things in the region will change
drastically.
If you said to me, "You can leave him where he is or give him a plane
ticket
to take off to some -- like the former leader of Uganda, well, you know,
we
gave him -- what was his name? -- Idi Amin -- we can give him an "Idi
Amin
passport"
and he would leave; I'd say no, leave him there, leave him there till we
get
him. Put him in jail. Short of that, I don't know how we get to the
point.
And by the way, I often wondered, Karadzic's party, the SDS, the only
misnomer, it should have dropped the "D." I mean, these guys are BAD
guys.
BAD guys. They're no good. SEN. G. SMITH: When Senator Biden makes that
visit
to that prison, I want to be your junior companion.
Gentlemen, thank you very much for your testimony. We appreciate it.
SEN. BIDEN: Thanks.
END
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Quarta parte:
DIBATTITO AL SENATO U.S.A. (2/2; per la parte 1/2 si veda:
http://www.egroups.com/message/crj-mailinglist/221?&start=218 )
===
Part 2 of Senate Hearings
Ambassador Gelbard, I wonder if Balkan ghosts are still alive even in
Serbia
that these opposition forces can actually unite to extricate Mr.
Milosevic,
what are the odds? I mean, you see it happening? There's a number of
parties
here:
Mr. Draskovic, Mr. Djindjic. I mean, can they put aside personal
ambition for
national good in this effort?
MR. GELBARD: Well, first, Mr. Chairman, one thing I've learned after a
number
of years working in the Balkans is that I don't give odds.
SEN. SMITH: (Laughs.)
MR. GELBARD: I like to be pleasantly surprised, if that should happen.
The biggest obstacle right now, as I said, has been the fractiousness of
some
elements of the opposition and the possibility that they may not have
learned
from the mistakes they committed in the past, where they allowed their
egos,
personal differences, and perhaps even some ideological differences to
get in
the way from achieving the ultimate goal that they all say they desire.
As
you know, Mr. Chairman, and as Senator Biden knows very well, the
Zajedno
group blew their opportunity during the winter of '96-'97, when they had
victory in their hands. And a principal reason for that was, indeed, the
personality differences between Draskovic and Djindjic. Over the last
year
and a half some elements of the opposition appear to have learned from
this.
Several coalition groups have developed in a very positive way,
including the
Alliance For Change, the Alliance For Democratic Political Parties, and
others. And their message appears to be a constructive one, a
forward-looking
one about the future that could be that of Serbia and the FRY.
Our message to the opposition has been that this time they need to learn
from
the mistakes of the past because they have such an extraordinary
opportunity
now, and they need to find a way, if they can't construct a single
opposition
front, then at least to develop a loose coalition that follows the same
line
to avoid undercutting each other. There have been a number of
non-aggression
pacts signed among opposition groups and parties, so far. That's a
positive
sign, and we think it's critical that they continue to move forward on
this
kind of code of conduct, as well as similar platforms in their
demonstrations
as they move forward.
SEN. G. SMITH: As you look into the future, you think of Montenegro and
what
they're doing, is Montenegro something of a model for how Kosovo could
develop?
And is Montenegro likely to go independent as well?
MR. GELBARD: Well first, we have, as I said in my written testimony,
continued to point to the government, the ruling party, the ruling
coalition
in Montenegro as the right kind of example for Serbia in the sense that
they
have developed a multi-ethnic democratic coalition, which, incidentally,
includes Serbs, Montenegrans, Albanians, Bosniacs, lots of others. In
that
sense, we would hope that the Serbian political parties and NGOs, labor
unions and the like, could learn from this.
And it's very interesting for me that Serb opposition leaders really
look up
to President Djukanovic, not just because he's 6'-5", but because he is
somebody who clearly has demonstrated a willingness and an ability to
construct a democratic coalition that functions and that pursues
free-market
economic policies. So we certainly hope that whether it's the people of
Serbia and their leadership, their political parties, or in Kosovo, that
this
can be a kind of example.
At the same time, our preference, of course strong preference, as I have
repeatedly told President Djukanovic, is for Montenegro to remain an
integral
part of the The --
SEN. G. SMITH: Is that likely, or what do you suspect is happening?
MR. GELBARD: Well, President Djukanovic is looking for a fairer deal
under
the constitution that exists.
The constitution itself isn't bad. It has been the way Milosevic has
twisted
it over the last seven or eight years. And Djukanovic is now looking for
more
autonomy under this constitution, as a way of keeping Montenegro inside
of
Yugoslavia, and we don't disagree with that.
We want to continue to see Montenegro as part of Yugoslavia. And we feel
that
a country made up of equal republics is a reasonable and decent way to
go.
SEN. G. SMITH: Ambassador Pardew, without a democratic change in
Belgrade --
I mean, is it realistic for Kosovo to be a truly autonomous province of
Serbia?
MR. PARDEW: On the long run, we have to have a democratic change in
Belgrade.
We are going to do everything that we possibly can to create the
institutions
of democracy in Kosovo with or without regard to what happens in
Belgrade.
But you're right; there are limits to how far you can go with the
current
regime in Belgrade. So I agree with you.
SEN. G. SMITH: Senator Biden?
SEN. BIDEN: Gentlemen, they are both good statements I believe -- and so
much
to ask. Let me start by picking up where the chairman left off.
Montenegro has basically issued an ultimatum to Serbia. And it says
that: "We
want greater autonomy. We want to be able to conduct relations with
other
countries without Belgrade's interference." And it set a deadline for
that to
occur. They are going to hold a referendum. That's been pushed back
until, as
I understand it, until September, the ultimatum.
I don't know where that goes. I mean, Milosevic, it seems to me, if he
accedes to that, demonstrates he has even less power than he's trying to
portray he has hold of, and if he doesn't, there's nothing he can do to
stop
what Montenegro's going to do. And I don't know how they stop that from
rolling down the -- that ball from rolling. Would you comment on that,
Ambassador Gelbard?
MR. GELBARD: First, under the constitution of the FRY, the federal
constitution, and under Montenegro's constitution, they do have certain
rights which go further than we would normally expect part of a
sovereign
state to have. For example, they do have legitimately their own foreign
minister and ability to conduct some foreign policy functions
constitutionally. They also have the right to have a referendum on
independence under their constitution.
My sense is that right now the vote would not go in favor of
independence.
But what's very clear, Senator, is that Milosevic has been the one who
has
pushed the Montenegrin people in this direction over the course of the
last
two years. As I mentioned in my testimony, Milosevic and his puppet, the
former president of Montenegro, Momir Bulatovic, tried to overthrow
Djukanovic before he was inaugurated as president on June 15th, 1998.
They
also increased the size of the army, the VJ, in Montenegro during the
conflict in Kosovo from 9,500, which is its usual size, up to 40,000 by
adding on reservists and some other regular army personnel. And it was a
very
delicate dance that took place there between the VJ and the police,
which
come under the Montenegrin government.
I think Milosevic knew that if the army tried to overthrow Djukanovic,
there
was likely to be civil war, the army was likely to fracture; and the
police
are quite strong. Nonetheless, the Montenegrin government is showing
prudence
in how it's trying to proceed. Djukanovic, by his own public statements,
has
said that he doesn't want independence; what he wants is equal
opportunity
inside of the FRY.
SEN. BIDEN: But he's threatened a referendum, hasn't he?
MR. GELBARD: He's threatened a referendum, which, as I said, is
legitimate
under their constitution.
SEN. BIDEN: Yeah.
MR. GELBARD: So I wouldn't want to give you a hypothetical answer about
where
this is going.
But Djukanovic is trying to keep his coalition to gether, he's trying to
cope
with the significantly increased percentage of the population who are
now
tremendously frustrated by Milosevic's boycotts and blockades against
the
Montenegrin people, and I think President Djukanovic deserves a great
deal of
credit for trying to walk a very delicate line right now, even as he's
trying
to stay inside Yugoslavia.
SEN. BIDEN: Great non-answer. (Laughter.) And I appreciate it very much.
It
seems to me, because I'm not a diplomat and most people don't care about
foreign policy and they forget what I have to say anyway --
MR. GELBARD: I never do, Senator.
SEN. BIDEN: It seems to me that Djukanovic has himself -- and I'm not
being
critical of him -- I mean, I think he's looking around and saying, "How
do I
cut my deal so that I get a major piece of this reconstruction that's
going
to go on in the Balkans here?" Not a whole lot that Serbia can do to
block
access now; boycotts are aren't going to matter a whole lot if, in fact,
they
attempt to.
And I just wonder how this is playing in Belgrade, whether or not they
fear a
referendum or Djukanovic fears a referendum more than Belgrade fears a
referendum, but you've -- you know, you've answered it as you probably
should.
We talk about -- Ambassador Pardew -- we talk about supporting the
media, a
free and open media. How? How do we do that? I thought you had said
that, or
maybe you said that --
MR. PARDEW: Yes. Yes.
SEN. BIDEN: Either one of you or both of you. Mechanically, how do we do
that?
MR. PARDEW: Well, we work through nongovernmental organizations. We have
established, as Ambassador Gelbard mentioned, a ring around Serbia,
which is
using international broadcasts, but we're offering that to independent
voices
in Serbia. We are using international facilities to make -- and making
them
available to independent groups.
SEN. BIDEN: Let me put it another way. We can make facilities available;
are
we prepared to shut down facilities that spew propaganda?
MR. GELBARD: Well, we have, senator.
SEN. BIDEN: We have. I mean --
MR. GELBARD: During the --
SEN. BIDEN: -- over the long haul? Is this the --
MR. GELBARD: Well, first, during the conflict in Kosovo we and our
allies --
SEN. BIDEN: No, I know that. I want to know from now.
MR. GELBARD: Well, the -- as far as I'm aware, Serb television has still
been
cut off the (EUTELSAT ?) facilities, and we've made sure that whenever
they
made an attempt -- and there was a brief moment when they got back on
another
satellite -- we shut them off those. What we're really trying to do, the
use
of the international facilities that Ambassador Pardew referred to,
particularly the RFE, RL, and the ring around Serbia, is a temporary
measure.
What we're trying to do over the long term is support an alternative
indigenous voice for the Serbian people through mechanisms such as ANEM,
the
Network of Independent Radio and Television. We have funds available
that we
were just about to deliver when the conflict broke out and Milosevic
switched
them off. But we have funds available that we are on the verge of
providing
to them again so that independent television and radio can be augmented
throughout Serbia. We're supporting Montenegran television and radio so
that
they can be another voice for the Serb opposition and the Serb people as
well
as, of course, for the Montenegran people. And we're looking at other
means
to really augment the capability or start up again the capability of
free
Serbian voices inside of Serbia.
MR. PARDEW: Can I add to that, senator?
SEN. BIDEN: Yes.
MR. PARDEW: We are -- the international community is promoting printing
of
newspapers that were previously printed in Kosovo now being printed in
Macedonia and distributed in Kosovo free of charge. You will hear from
John
Fox (sp) later, I think, from the Soros Foundation. They've been
instrumental
in putting funding in to independent radio in Kosovo. We encourage that.
The
former Serbian radio and TV in Pristina has been taken over by the
international community, and we've denied one access to one group to
dominate
that because we don't want a single voice, and we will ensure that there
are
multiple voices on this.
So there are a range of programs ongoing in Kosovo, as Bob mentioned.
SEN. BIDEN: What can we do about inside Serbia? For example, Draskovic
continues to deny access to Studio B, which is supposedly, as I
understand it
-- he's not?
MR. GELBARD: No, he's actually given access to Studio B -- excuse me;
given
access of Studio B to Radio B-92. And my understanding is that Radio
B-92,
one of the independent voices, has just reopened as Radio B-292. We want
Draskovic to open up Studio B to the rest of the opposition, and that's
a
message that he'll be getting from us in the next few days.
SEN. BIDEN: Last question, if I may, Mr. Chairman?
SEN. G. SMITH: Sure.
SEN. BIDEN: We all say, including me, that ultimately there is no
long-term
integration of the Balkans into an undivided Europe until Milosevic
goes. I
wonder whether we're saying that too much these days, including me. Let
me be
more precise.
As long as there is success in Sarajevo today -- I guess it's today or
tomorrow -- tomorrow, as long as the commitments are real, as long as
the
civilian police force is put in place, the media is not dominated, the
reconstruction of Kosovo and Macedonia and Montenegro and the
surrounding
areas really begins in earnest, with the European Community taking the
lead,
I don't know what Serbia can do, under Milosevic's leadership, that can
much
effect whether or not we succeed in that part. In other words,
admittedly, at
the end of the day, until the Serbian people have come to terms with
their
leadership and what was done, you can't have a solution here. But I
don't
know what Milosevic and an antagonistic Serbia can do, as a practical
matter,
to effect about 500 things we've got to do in the meantime anyway, to
begin
to put together, economically and politically, a larger plan for the
Balkans.
Am I missing something here?
MR. GELBARD: Senator, I believe that Milosevic has an infinite
capability for
creating damage. Even while he had so many problems at home, he tried to
overthrow the Dodik government, the moderate Bosnian Serb government in
Republika Srpska. We were able to stymie that, and the Dodik -- Dodik
and his
government emerged strong after the conflict --
SEN. BIDEN: Is that related to his ability if it -- when it was even a
possibility, to his ability to provide force to back up any effort that
would
be undertaken, ultimately? The ability to provide assistance?
MR. GELBARD: He still has the capability of providing force, not in
Bosnia,
but in Montenegro, and in his own perverse way --
SEN. BIDEN: How can he do that? Be specific --
MR. GELBARD: Through the army.
SEN. BIDEN: If in fact that occurs, I can't imagine that the
international
community and KFOR will not come down on that effort like a God- -- a
gosh-darn mountainside being blown up. I don't understand that. I mean,
do
you mean -- is there any doubt on the part of the alliance that if there
is
use of military force, of the VJ, in Montenegro, that we won't use all
force
available to us to take them out?
SEN. SMITH: Or are you telling us that we won't? I mean, I don't --
MR. GELBARD: I'm not certain that that is something which is in -- that
is
not necessarily in NATO's agreed NATO action at this point, or when the
current mandate terminates. If it isn't --
SEN. BIDEN: But --
MR. GELBARD: -- what I worry about is that Milosevic survives by
creating
trouble. He is in the worst trouble he's ever been. He's in a corner.
The
economy has collapsed totally. Real wages were at the same level as the
early
1950s before the conflict, and right now they have virtually no reserves
left. But this is why it is imperative to see a change in the regime, to
have
democratic government arrive in Belgrade as a way of having the region
whole.
That's why we --
SEN. BIDEN: I couldn't agree more, but let me --
MR. GELBARD: -- consider that to be an imperative in our foreign policy.
SEN. BIDEN: As you know, there has been no one that you have known in
Congress that has been more supportive of arriving at that conclusion,
but I
like to think I am a realist.
The idea that we are going to produce a democratic government in Serbia,
between now an d the end of the year, is about as likely as this podium
getting up and walking to the back of the room. And what I want to sort
of
disabuse everybody of here is a new State Department-arrived-at notion
that,
through State Department-speak, we are going to arrive at something
that's
not possible. The most likely thing to do is nail the son of a gun by
literally going in and getting him and dragging him to The Hague. If we
had a
brain in our collective heads, that's what we would do; literally, not
figuratively. But we are not going to do that because our European
friends
all lack the will, and we will lack the willingness to push that
forcefully.
And so I just hope that we make it clear that the idea that he may be
alive
and well in Serbia does not mean that we -- the isolation of Serbia and
him
in fact -- and him in particular does not allow us to pursue all our
other
objectives in the meantime. If they want to wither on the vine and die,
so be
it -- so be it -- which takes me to a question relating to aid.
We are saying -- we and the Europeans are saying that we will provide
humanitarian financial -- we are not planning financial assistance or
reconstruction aid but that we will provide humanitarian assistance. I
think
that is a very, very, very fine line to draw. And I think that we should
be
very aware that his ability to create mischief and gain credibility will
relate to how tightly we parse that.
How do we prevent Milosevic from claiming credit for Western assistance
to
Serbia, particularly when the media is still not a free media?
So I just -- I'm not even asking you to respond, because it's unfair. If
you'd like to, I'd welcome it. But I just think that this ain't over
till
it's over. It's not over till he's gone. But we cannot assume as long as
he's
[not?]gone we can hedge our assessment of what we're able to do outside
of
Serbia, in my humble opinion.
SEN. G. SMITH: I'd like to follow on to what Senator Biden is saying
here.
One of the reasons that I voted to support President Clinton and the
allies
in this action in Kosovo was my belief that if Milosevic could work this
kind
of mischief, we would be pinned down in Bosnia for a long, long, long
time,
and that by defanging his military, we could go home earlier. Is that a
naïve
belief on my part?
MR. GELBARD: Well, first, to answer Senator Biden's question --
SEN. G. SMITH: And by the way, I think he's going to commit mischief if
we're
saying that we're not willing to do anything.
MR. GELBARD: First to answer Senator Biden, though, Senator, I agree
with you.
That's why we are continuing to press ahead on all other initiatives and
we're working with the Europeans on the stability pact, which is a
regional
effort, a regional approach regarding democracy, security and economic
development. And that's what we feel it has to be, a regional focus on
every
place.
The line -- the fine line you ask about, I agree with you again. That's
why,
again, we're not trying to play games on the issue of assistance; we're
saying humanitarian assistance means food and medicine. We have looked
at
other types of possible assistance, but we feel, as I said in my
statement,
that it's imperative to maintain the isolation with the three layers of
sanctions -- the outer wall, Kosovo-related sanctions, and the wartime
sanctions.
And the -- President Clinton and the administration, entire
administration,
feel very strongly that we should be maintaining all these sanctions
until --
as a way of maintaining this type of isolation, because you're right, it
would be very easy to begin to blur the line. And I know, as you know,
Senator, there are countries out there that are interested in moving
over
different lines over time.
SEN. BIDEN: And I'm worried about us setting the bar so high that we
build in
failure here, because if a year from now there is not democracy in
Serbia,
after we keep talking this claptrap about, you know, democratic -- there
aren't any democratic forces in Serbia now. Draskovic ain't a Democrat.
This
guy is no box of chocolates. He's better than the other guy, but this is
no
box of chocolates. I think we should be honest about this.
And look, just to make it clear to you where I am, and just speaking as
one
senator, there's a big difference between clearing the bridge -- the
bridge
debris out of the Danube so our allies can use the Danube, and building
a new
bridge. I'll clear it. I will do everything in my power here to make
sure
there's not a cent that can be spent to build it.
And I just think that they've got to come to their -- the realization of
what
they have enabled Milosevic to do, and until there are democratic forces
there, I am -- like for example, the press asks me all the time, we
voted 100
-- what was it? -- $100 million in the Serbian -- I don't know who to
give it
to? Okay?
I mean, I know how -- I know what I'd like to give it to. But we
Americans
tend to think, whether it was Ronald Reagan in, you know, in Latin
America or
us in the Balkans, that there's some Jeffersonian democrat waiting to
spring
up somewhere to lead a -- you know, a democratic rival there. There
ain't no
Democrats in Serbia, that I've found. I mean -- democratic leadership,
that
has any realistic possibility of moving. So I guess what I'm trying to
say to
you is this. I just think it's a little bit like -- the secretary got
mad at
me when I a month ago said stop talking about Rambouillet, stop talking
about
how we want to bring them back to the table. We don't want to bring them
back, we want to beat the hell ou t of them until they stop. That's what
we
want. And that's the only thing that worked.
And I think this idea that we're really in effect saying we're not going
to
succeed until we have a democratic Serbia, then that is ultimate
success. But
I'm afraid you're going to have people up here saying, well, geez, it's
been
-- it's been four months, you know? -- don't have it yet, so I guess we
shouldn't be spending all this money doing this other stuff over here.
MR. GELBARD: Well, in fact, I said in my statement that in the short
term
it's hard to imagine that it will be able to achieve a democratic
solution in
Serbia. That's why we have to be prepared to support democratic forces
--
SEN. BIDEN: And there are democratic forces.
MR. GELBARD: Well --
SEN. BIDEN: Ain't much democratic leadership.
MR. GELBARD: Tomorrow a representative of the democratic opposition,
Draguslav Ovramovic (sp), will be in Sarajevo for the summit. This is a
man
who is a very high common denominator. He is part of the alliance for
change.
Vuk Draskovic is a really flawed individual. But --
SEN. BIDEN: He is the Rasputin of the 21st century, about to be. I mean,
we're not quite there yet.
MR. GELBARD: I'll tell him you said it. (Laughs.)
SEN. BIDEN: I told him that.
MR. GELBARD: Yeah.
SEN. BIDEN: So I -- I'd tell him. I --
MR. GELBARD: We still hope that he can be part of the solution here --
SEN.
BIDEN: I hope so, too, but he's going to take work.
MR. GELBARD: Mr. Chairman -- he's going to take a lot of work.
SEN. BIDEN: That's a very high maintenance fellow.
MR. GELBARD: I know. Believe me, I know. (Laughs.)
Mr. Chairman, regarding your question, the -- (stops) -- the Republika
Srpska
has emerged, coming out of the conflict, if anything with significantly
strengthened moderate leadership. The Dodik government is stronger than
they
were at the beginning of the year. They are stronger than they were
after the
elections in September.
When I last met with Prime Minister Dodik, about a month ago, he was
much
more comfortable, much more confident about his ability to govern. We
are
seeing that the extremes, who were weakened after the September national
elections, are becoming weaker still. High Representative Carlos
Westendorp,
whose last day is tomorrow, banished President Poplasen, the leader of
the
Radical Party, from his position, and it's now very clear that his
Radical
Party is weaker than ever, as is Karadzic's SDS. We see prospects for
the
moderates better than ever. And while there's still a ways to go, the
prospects look much better.
SEN. G. SMITH: Thank you.
MR. PARDEW: Could I just comment on the democracy issue? We don't have
any
illusions about who we're dealing with here, but I do think democracy is
an
aspiration of many of the Serb people. And in that regard, I don't think
we
ought to stop talking about it, Senator. I think we ought to -- we ought
to
continue to discuss it as an issue of --
SEN. BIDEN: I'm not suggesting we don't talk about it; I'm suggesting we
talk
about it realistically. I mean, for example, it's amazing what can
happen
when you eliminate the extremes. I mean, the single best thing that ever
happened to the Republic of Srpska is we kicked the living hell out of
Milosevic. There ain't no alternative left. That's the reason why it
happened. It had nothing to do with elections, it had to do with the
fact
that Westendorp had the right idea, number one; and number two, there
ain't
no alternative. Belgrade's no beacon, no help, no place to go. So there
is no
alternative. It's amazing what a salutary impact that has upon extremes
in
countries.
And that's why the single best thing we -- my dream is to visit
Milosevic in
prison. (Laughter.) I mean that sincerely. I'm not being facetious.
Because
you put Milosevic in prison, and things in the region will change
drastically.
If you said to me, "You can leave him where he is or give him a plane
ticket
to take off to some -- like the former leader of Uganda, well, you know,
we
gave him -- what was his name? -- Idi Amin -- we can give him an "Idi
Amin
passport"
and he would leave; I'd say no, leave him there, leave him there till we
get
him. Put him in jail. Short of that, I don't know how we get to the
point.
And by the way, I often wondered, Karadzic's party, the SDS, the only
misnomer, it should have dropped the "D." I mean, these guys are BAD
guys.
BAD guys. They're no good. SEN. G. SMITH: When Senator Biden makes that
visit
to that prison, I want to be your junior companion.
Gentlemen, thank you very much for your testimony. We appreciate it.
SEN. BIDEN: Thanks.
END
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