From: r_rozoff
Subject: Serbian Elections: Nightmare For Kosovo Separatists And
Western Soulmates
Date: January 24, 2007 10:53:28 PM GMT+01:00
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070124/59639608.html
Russian Information Agency Novosti
January 24, 2007
Lessons of parliamentary elections in Serbia
Pyotr Iskanderov*
MOSCOW - Last Sunday's parliamentary elections in
Serbia were indicative in many respects. They cast a
new light on domestic political processes, prospects
of Kosovo settlement and the future of Serbia's
relations with the European Union (EU).
Moreover, they are bound to affect the destiny of
breakaway republics on post-Soviet territory.
Preliminary results of the voting suggest the first
conclusion - it was wrong to talk about voter apathy
in Serbia. Over 60% of eligible voters have turned up
at the polling stations - more than for elections held
in the past few years.
This fact not only attests to the Serbians' high
political activity but also shows that the elections
fairly and legitimately reflect the domestic
situation.
Secondly, two formerly influential forces - the
Socialist Party and the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO)
- have actually left the political scene. The former
has barely passed a 5% threshold needed to win seats
in parliament. The latter has remained without a
faction in parliament, which is a heavy blow to SPO
leader and current Foreign Minister Vuk Draskovic.
Thirdly, the results of the elections are particularly
alarming for the West. The Serbian Radical Party (SRS)
is still the leading political force in the country.
Its leader Vojislav Seselj has been on trial in the
Hague since February 2003.
It is an open secret that in the past few months, the
West was doing all it could to secure success in the
elections for the loyal parties, first and foremost,
the Democratic Party (DP) headed by the current
President Boris Tadic. UN envoy for Kosovo Martti
Ahtisaari even broke his promise to resolve the Kosovo
problem by the end of 2006.
He delayed the publication of his plan till late
January to prevent the Serbian authorities from having
to choose between Kosovo and European integration.
But this tactic has failed, and in preliminary
estimates the DP has received less than 23% votes,
which is a clear setback considering powerful
propaganda support for its campaign at home and
abroad.
As a result, the parliamentary majority will go to the
fierce opponents of Kosovo's separation from Serbia.
Unlike Boris Tadic, who called on the Serbian voters
to accept Kosovo's potential loss, even his colleague
in the democratic camp, DP leader Vojislav Kostunica,
promised to do all he could against Kosovo's
cessation, and actually sided with the radicals on
this score.
The Socialists, an opposition party, are most likely
to vote against the Ahtisaari plan, all the more so if
it is brought to parliament by the much-hated
President Tadic.
The DP and the other emphatically pro-Western party of
Liberal Democrats (LDP), which has been elected to
parliament, will not have enough votes to let it
approve Kosovo's independence.
Moreover, it may happen that the forces united under
the democratic opposition banner since the times of
Milosevic will not be able to form a valid government.
Despite a relative setback of his party, Vojislav
Kostunica is not going to give up his premiership to a
DP candidate and will need SRS support for this.
A vague situation and political bargaining may last
for three months (this is the term assigned by the
Serbian constitution for the government's formation)
and eventually lead to parliament's dissolution and
new elections, at which the voters, disappointed over
the squabble among the Democrats, are most likely to
give even more support to the opposition Radicals.
To sum up, the Sunday elections in Serbia have
increased the likelihood of a scenario that has been a
nightmare for the Kosovo separatists and their Western
soulmates for a long time.
If the Serbian parliament refuses to recognize
Kosovo's independence, its cessation can only be
imposed on Belgrade by force. This is exactly the case
against which President Vladimir Putin has warned more
than once. He is firmly resolved not to allow the UN
Security Council to pass a decision on Kosovo that
would be unacceptable for Belgrade. It is clear what
he meant as the head of a state with the right to veto
in the UN Security Council.
The leaders of the breakaway republics on post-Soviet
territory should draw their own conclusion from the
elections in Serbia. I think they will become even
more disappointed with the ability of the Western
leaders and international officials to exert effective
influence on the domestic situation in foreign
countries.
Consolidation of the supporters of united Serbia may
provide only a scant relief to Chisinau and Tbilisi.
{Moldova and Georgia]
The Serbians' resolve to determine the destiny of
their country without any outside interference fully
conforms to the aspirations of breakaway republics.
Hence, the idea of national self-determination will
receive a new impetus in Transdnestr, Abkhazia and
South Ossetia.
*Pyotr Iskanderov, Institute of Slavic Studies at the
Russian Academy of Sciences.
SOURCE:
Stop NATO - http://groups.yahoo.com/group/stopnato
Yugoslaviainfo - http://groups.yahoo.com/group/yugoslaviainfo
Subject: Serbian Elections: Nightmare For Kosovo Separatists And
Western Soulmates
Date: January 24, 2007 10:53:28 PM GMT+01:00
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070124/59639608.html
Russian Information Agency Novosti
January 24, 2007
Lessons of parliamentary elections in Serbia
Pyotr Iskanderov*
MOSCOW - Last Sunday's parliamentary elections in
Serbia were indicative in many respects. They cast a
new light on domestic political processes, prospects
of Kosovo settlement and the future of Serbia's
relations with the European Union (EU).
Moreover, they are bound to affect the destiny of
breakaway republics on post-Soviet territory.
Preliminary results of the voting suggest the first
conclusion - it was wrong to talk about voter apathy
in Serbia. Over 60% of eligible voters have turned up
at the polling stations - more than for elections held
in the past few years.
This fact not only attests to the Serbians' high
political activity but also shows that the elections
fairly and legitimately reflect the domestic
situation.
Secondly, two formerly influential forces - the
Socialist Party and the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO)
- have actually left the political scene. The former
has barely passed a 5% threshold needed to win seats
in parliament. The latter has remained without a
faction in parliament, which is a heavy blow to SPO
leader and current Foreign Minister Vuk Draskovic.
Thirdly, the results of the elections are particularly
alarming for the West. The Serbian Radical Party (SRS)
is still the leading political force in the country.
Its leader Vojislav Seselj has been on trial in the
Hague since February 2003.
It is an open secret that in the past few months, the
West was doing all it could to secure success in the
elections for the loyal parties, first and foremost,
the Democratic Party (DP) headed by the current
President Boris Tadic. UN envoy for Kosovo Martti
Ahtisaari even broke his promise to resolve the Kosovo
problem by the end of 2006.
He delayed the publication of his plan till late
January to prevent the Serbian authorities from having
to choose between Kosovo and European integration.
But this tactic has failed, and in preliminary
estimates the DP has received less than 23% votes,
which is a clear setback considering powerful
propaganda support for its campaign at home and
abroad.
As a result, the parliamentary majority will go to the
fierce opponents of Kosovo's separation from Serbia.
Unlike Boris Tadic, who called on the Serbian voters
to accept Kosovo's potential loss, even his colleague
in the democratic camp, DP leader Vojislav Kostunica,
promised to do all he could against Kosovo's
cessation, and actually sided with the radicals on
this score.
The Socialists, an opposition party, are most likely
to vote against the Ahtisaari plan, all the more so if
it is brought to parliament by the much-hated
President Tadic.
The DP and the other emphatically pro-Western party of
Liberal Democrats (LDP), which has been elected to
parliament, will not have enough votes to let it
approve Kosovo's independence.
Moreover, it may happen that the forces united under
the democratic opposition banner since the times of
Milosevic will not be able to form a valid government.
Despite a relative setback of his party, Vojislav
Kostunica is not going to give up his premiership to a
DP candidate and will need SRS support for this.
A vague situation and political bargaining may last
for three months (this is the term assigned by the
Serbian constitution for the government's formation)
and eventually lead to parliament's dissolution and
new elections, at which the voters, disappointed over
the squabble among the Democrats, are most likely to
give even more support to the opposition Radicals.
To sum up, the Sunday elections in Serbia have
increased the likelihood of a scenario that has been a
nightmare for the Kosovo separatists and their Western
soulmates for a long time.
If the Serbian parliament refuses to recognize
Kosovo's independence, its cessation can only be
imposed on Belgrade by force. This is exactly the case
against which President Vladimir Putin has warned more
than once. He is firmly resolved not to allow the UN
Security Council to pass a decision on Kosovo that
would be unacceptable for Belgrade. It is clear what
he meant as the head of a state with the right to veto
in the UN Security Council.
The leaders of the breakaway republics on post-Soviet
territory should draw their own conclusion from the
elections in Serbia. I think they will become even
more disappointed with the ability of the Western
leaders and international officials to exert effective
influence on the domestic situation in foreign
countries.
Consolidation of the supporters of united Serbia may
provide only a scant relief to Chisinau and Tbilisi.
{Moldova and Georgia]
The Serbians' resolve to determine the destiny of
their country without any outside interference fully
conforms to the aspirations of breakaway republics.
Hence, the idea of national self-determination will
receive a new impetus in Transdnestr, Abkhazia and
South Ossetia.
*Pyotr Iskanderov, Institute of Slavic Studies at the
Russian Academy of Sciences.
SOURCE:
Stop NATO - http://groups.yahoo.com/group/stopnato
Yugoslaviainfo - http://groups.yahoo.com/group/yugoslaviainfo