http://www.russianobserver.com/stories/2001/07/19/995543369/995544219.html

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Russian Observer
July 19, 2001


CIS expert: Crises in Ukraine and Belarus are
masterminded in one place
Campaign against Lukashenko as reflection of Western
striving to wreck Russia-Belarus union


19.04.2001, 16:04


Konstantin Zatulin, Director of the Institute for CIS
Countries, takes note of press reports claiming that
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has issued a
decree establishing "a death squad" to "crack down on
the president's political opponents" and says he sees
a link between the situation in Belarus and Ukraine,
especially as far as scandals arising from missing
people are concerned.

He points out that charging an incumbent president
with political assassination is the most effective
weapon. President Leonid Kuchma of Ukraine has
likewise been charged with masterminding the murder of
the independent journalist Gongadze. He has also been
exposed to a "cassette" scandal following reports that
his conversations had been tapped.

Turning to recent revelations in the course of the
Belarus presidential campaign by one of the
candidates, Chairman of the Belarus Federation of
Labor Unions Viktor Goncharik, Zatulin describes them
as an act of desperation by a candidate when the
outcome of the campaign is a foregone conclusion.

He is skeptical of reports claiming that Lukashenko
has signed a decree that could be used to mar his
reputation. Besides, he says, the opposition has posed
no serious threat to Lukashenko "either yesterday or
today." Nor are they likely to pose it in the near
future.

Zatulin gives a reminder that at one time former
National Bank Chairman Tamara Vinnikova was thought to
be among those missing but later she turned up in
London.

"And it may well be that the same will happen to some
of those who are missing in this way now," he says.

Zatulin draws a parallel between the situation in
Belarus and Ukraine, the difference being that
although some forces in the West did want to topple
Kuchma, they were not prepared to do it at all cost.
As far as Lukashenko is concerned, toppling him is a
matter of paramount importance for them.

"Kuchma is anxious to make sure that Ukraine under his
leadership could enjoy the benevolence of the new U.S.
administration but the Americans no longer care for
him because he has established unambiguous borders in
the East by ratifying a treaty delineating relations
between Ukraine and Russia. What they need is younger
politicians with close ties to the West. Besides,
Western financial institutions were nervous about the
scale of corruption in Ukraine." As for Belarus, it
has gone too far toward the establishment of a union
state with Russia.

"Hence persistent attacks on Lukashenko and the fact
that this campaign is displaying artfulness and
orchestration."

Zatulin points out that the organized character of the
campaign against Lukashenko is seen from the fact that
most of the revelations come from Moscow.

"The West is conscious of the fact that Belarus
society regards any word coming from Moscow as very
important. If a word is said in the West, it has fewer
chances of being heeded and understood in Belarus but
if it is said in Russia, there is a far better
chance."

In Zatulin's opinion, the West would accept any
candidate in Belarus with the exception of Lukashenko.


"If a different person comes, with the union of the
two states failing to achieve irreversibility, the
Western scenario will have been implemented to some
extent."

Zatulin feels the West wants to prevent a union of
Russia and Belarus because such integration will
provide an example for "very many in the space of the
former Soviet Union."

See also:

Zbigniew Brzezinski's "Milosevic Scenario" For Belarus
And Ukraine at:
http://www.russianobserver.com/foreign/cis/2001/07/17/995374314.html

Western Foundations In Ukraine: Wooing Pro-American
Elite Starts At School:
http://www.russianobserver.com/stories/2001/07/19/995543369/995543210.html

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