http://www.iwpr.net/index.pl?archive/bcr3/bcr3_200404_492_1_eng.txt
IWPR'S BALKAN CRISIS REPORT, No. 492, April 16, 2004
MONTENEGRO PLANS INDEPENDENCE VOTE
Critics claim poll threat is a ploy to stop first direct elections to
state union assembly.
By Nedjeljko Rudovic in Podgorica
In a move aimed at indefinitely postponing direct elections to the
Serbia-Montenegrin parliament, Montenegro's pro-independence leadership
has unveiled a plan to call a referendum on separation from Serbia.
Throughout March and April, the Montenegrin leadership has hinted that
a referendum on leaving the state union between the two countries, SCG,
should take place in March 2005.
According to Podgorica analysts, Montenegro aims to use the threat of
an independence vote to force the indefinite postponement of
Serbia-Montenegro's first direct parliamentary elections in January
2005, which they stand to lose.
Voters supporting the ruling coalition in Montenegro are thought
unlikely to take part in these elections, as they back an independent
state. Their abstention, however, would open the door for Montenegro's
pro-Serbian opposition to gain a major foothold in the state union
parliament and put the breaks on any future independence moves.
Montenegro joined the state union after signing a deal known as the
Belgrade agreement in March 2002 under direct pressure from the EU and
its high representative for foreign policy and security, Javier Solana.
Under the deal, the pro-independence coalition, comprising Prime
Minister Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, and
its junior coalition partner the Social Democrat Party, SDP, led by
Ranko Krivokapic, had to abandon calls for a referendum on independence
for a period of three years. The moratorium expires in March 2005.
The Belgrade agreement transformed the former federal structure linking
Serbia and Montenegro into a loose union, granting both member states
wide political and fiscal autonomy.
Until now, no direct elections to the state union parliament have
occurred. Instead, the two governments have appointed delegates.
However, the country's constitutional charter, adopted in 2003,
prescribes that after two years direct elections to the assembly must
take place.
A source close to the DPS said an incentive for calling the
independence poll was the approach in January 2005 of direct
parliamentary elections to the state union parliament.
If these elections take place, opposition forces favouring closer links
to Serbia could be elected to the Serbia-Montenegro parliament and in
harness with the ruling coalition in Serbia deal a serious blow to the
Montenegrin independence project.
Nebojsa Medojevic, director of the think-tank, Group for Changes, said
the entry of pro-Serbian opposition representatives into the
Serbia-Montenegrin parliament would be seen as a "signal that the
political mood had changed in favour of the state union", boosting the
political forces opposed to Montenegro's independence.
Medojevic told IWPR that direct elections would seriously complicate
matters for Djukanovic's coalition, which has staked its future on
bringing the Montenegrin independence project closer to completion.
If the referendum on independence does not take place until next March,
Medojevic told IWPR, the SDP might withdraw from the goverment and so
cause it to fall.
He added public opinion polls revealed that the gap between
pro-independence forces and supporters of union with Serbia was
steadily falling.
"If Montenegro's opposition wins at the SCG parliamentary elections,
the scales could be tipped towards staying in the union with Serbia,
calling into the question Montenegro's government," he said.
Surveys taken by the Damar polling agency in April 2001 and September
2003 back up claims that support for independence in Montenegro is
declining steadily.
The agency reported in 2001 that 49.3 per cent of Montenegrin citizens
then favoured independence while 39.5 per cent were opposed.
But in September 2003, a survey said support for separation had dropped
sharply to 40.6 per cent while opposition had fallen only slightly to
37.4 per cent.
Krivopakic, who is also the speaker of Montenegro's parliament, earlier
this month insisted that a referendum on independence must go ahead
next year as planned.
"Pro-independence forces will rally round vital state interests," he
said. "It is up to us to deliver our promises to citizens. This will be
an important historical test for us."
A senior DPS official, meanwhile, who preferred to remain anonymous,
explained why the government had no desire to see direct elections to
the state union parliament take place.
"A direct ballot in which citizens elect deputies to the state union
parliament would certainly not play into our hands because a half of
our independence-minded voters would abstain," he said.
"We are insisting now on the referendum, which is why we are reluctant
to make any preparations for federal elections. It would effectively
mean that they [the elections] would have to be postponed."
Miodrag Vukovic, a senior DPS official, told IWPR that most party
members believed it made sense to hold a referendum on independence
before direct elections take place.
"If the referendum shows the state union has no prospects, there could
be no elections for the state union parliament," Vukovic said.
However, according to Medojevic, requests for a postponement are likely
to fall on deaf ears, as neither the Serbian government nor the
international community will support any delay.
Serbia's governing Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, and pro-Serbian
opposition parties in Montenegro have acted fast to condemn what they
see as a Montenegrin ploy.
Dragan Soc, leader of the Montenegrin opposition People's Party, said
Podgorica's only aim was to avoid direct elections "at any cost".
"This is why the story about the referendum has come to the fore now,"
he added. "The SDP and DPS know they have no political platform they
can use to encourage pro-independence supporters to go these polls."
Soc maintained that a postponement of direct elections to the state
union assembly was improbable because of the known opposition to any
such outcome from Serbia's prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica.
However, leaders of Montenegro's ruling parties are also standing firm.
They insist they cannot abandon the independence project, as separation
remains the core issue for most of their voters.
"If we fail to call a referendum on independence next year, I see no
point in staying in power," said Rifat Rastorder, vice-president of the
SDP.
Nedjeljko Rudovic is a journalist with the Podgorica daily Vijesti.
---
Balkan Crisis Report is supported by the Department for International
Development, the European Commission, the Swedish International
Development and Cooperation Agency, The Netherlands Ministry for
Foreign Affairs, and other funders. IWPR also acknowledges general
support from the Ford Foundation.
For further details on this project, other information services and
media programmes, visit IWPR's website: www.iwpr.net
(...) The Institute for War & Peace Reporting is a London-based
independent non-profit organisation supporting regional media and
democratic change.
(...)
ISSN: 1477-7932 Copyright (c) 2004 The Institute for War & Peace
Reporting
BALKAN CRISIS REPORT No. 492
IWPR'S BALKAN CRISIS REPORT, No. 492, April 16, 2004
MONTENEGRO PLANS INDEPENDENCE VOTE
Critics claim poll threat is a ploy to stop first direct elections to
state union assembly.
By Nedjeljko Rudovic in Podgorica
In a move aimed at indefinitely postponing direct elections to the
Serbia-Montenegrin parliament, Montenegro's pro-independence leadership
has unveiled a plan to call a referendum on separation from Serbia.
Throughout March and April, the Montenegrin leadership has hinted that
a referendum on leaving the state union between the two countries, SCG,
should take place in March 2005.
According to Podgorica analysts, Montenegro aims to use the threat of
an independence vote to force the indefinite postponement of
Serbia-Montenegro's first direct parliamentary elections in January
2005, which they stand to lose.
Voters supporting the ruling coalition in Montenegro are thought
unlikely to take part in these elections, as they back an independent
state. Their abstention, however, would open the door for Montenegro's
pro-Serbian opposition to gain a major foothold in the state union
parliament and put the breaks on any future independence moves.
Montenegro joined the state union after signing a deal known as the
Belgrade agreement in March 2002 under direct pressure from the EU and
its high representative for foreign policy and security, Javier Solana.
Under the deal, the pro-independence coalition, comprising Prime
Minister Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, and
its junior coalition partner the Social Democrat Party, SDP, led by
Ranko Krivokapic, had to abandon calls for a referendum on independence
for a period of three years. The moratorium expires in March 2005.
The Belgrade agreement transformed the former federal structure linking
Serbia and Montenegro into a loose union, granting both member states
wide political and fiscal autonomy.
Until now, no direct elections to the state union parliament have
occurred. Instead, the two governments have appointed delegates.
However, the country's constitutional charter, adopted in 2003,
prescribes that after two years direct elections to the assembly must
take place.
A source close to the DPS said an incentive for calling the
independence poll was the approach in January 2005 of direct
parliamentary elections to the state union parliament.
If these elections take place, opposition forces favouring closer links
to Serbia could be elected to the Serbia-Montenegro parliament and in
harness with the ruling coalition in Serbia deal a serious blow to the
Montenegrin independence project.
Nebojsa Medojevic, director of the think-tank, Group for Changes, said
the entry of pro-Serbian opposition representatives into the
Serbia-Montenegrin parliament would be seen as a "signal that the
political mood had changed in favour of the state union", boosting the
political forces opposed to Montenegro's independence.
Medojevic told IWPR that direct elections would seriously complicate
matters for Djukanovic's coalition, which has staked its future on
bringing the Montenegrin independence project closer to completion.
If the referendum on independence does not take place until next March,
Medojevic told IWPR, the SDP might withdraw from the goverment and so
cause it to fall.
He added public opinion polls revealed that the gap between
pro-independence forces and supporters of union with Serbia was
steadily falling.
"If Montenegro's opposition wins at the SCG parliamentary elections,
the scales could be tipped towards staying in the union with Serbia,
calling into the question Montenegro's government," he said.
Surveys taken by the Damar polling agency in April 2001 and September
2003 back up claims that support for independence in Montenegro is
declining steadily.
The agency reported in 2001 that 49.3 per cent of Montenegrin citizens
then favoured independence while 39.5 per cent were opposed.
But in September 2003, a survey said support for separation had dropped
sharply to 40.6 per cent while opposition had fallen only slightly to
37.4 per cent.
Krivopakic, who is also the speaker of Montenegro's parliament, earlier
this month insisted that a referendum on independence must go ahead
next year as planned.
"Pro-independence forces will rally round vital state interests," he
said. "It is up to us to deliver our promises to citizens. This will be
an important historical test for us."
A senior DPS official, meanwhile, who preferred to remain anonymous,
explained why the government had no desire to see direct elections to
the state union parliament take place.
"A direct ballot in which citizens elect deputies to the state union
parliament would certainly not play into our hands because a half of
our independence-minded voters would abstain," he said.
"We are insisting now on the referendum, which is why we are reluctant
to make any preparations for federal elections. It would effectively
mean that they [the elections] would have to be postponed."
Miodrag Vukovic, a senior DPS official, told IWPR that most party
members believed it made sense to hold a referendum on independence
before direct elections take place.
"If the referendum shows the state union has no prospects, there could
be no elections for the state union parliament," Vukovic said.
However, according to Medojevic, requests for a postponement are likely
to fall on deaf ears, as neither the Serbian government nor the
international community will support any delay.
Serbia's governing Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, and pro-Serbian
opposition parties in Montenegro have acted fast to condemn what they
see as a Montenegrin ploy.
Dragan Soc, leader of the Montenegrin opposition People's Party, said
Podgorica's only aim was to avoid direct elections "at any cost".
"This is why the story about the referendum has come to the fore now,"
he added. "The SDP and DPS know they have no political platform they
can use to encourage pro-independence supporters to go these polls."
Soc maintained that a postponement of direct elections to the state
union assembly was improbable because of the known opposition to any
such outcome from Serbia's prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica.
However, leaders of Montenegro's ruling parties are also standing firm.
They insist they cannot abandon the independence project, as separation
remains the core issue for most of their voters.
"If we fail to call a referendum on independence next year, I see no
point in staying in power," said Rifat Rastorder, vice-president of the
SDP.
Nedjeljko Rudovic is a journalist with the Podgorica daily Vijesti.
---
Balkan Crisis Report is supported by the Department for International
Development, the European Commission, the Swedish International
Development and Cooperation Agency, The Netherlands Ministry for
Foreign Affairs, and other funders. IWPR also acknowledges general
support from the Ford Foundation.
For further details on this project, other information services and
media programmes, visit IWPR's website: www.iwpr.net
(...) The Institute for War & Peace Reporting is a London-based
independent non-profit organisation supporting regional media and
democratic change.
(...)
ISSN: 1477-7932 Copyright (c) 2004 The Institute for War & Peace
Reporting
BALKAN CRISIS REPORT No. 492